Main traders’ attention is drawn to US statistics: US GDP has grown by 3,2% in fourth quarter of 2010 (growth by 3,5% was forecasted); in third quarter it grew by 2,6%. This is a preliminary info.

Moreover, PCE Core Index (Personal Consumption Expenditures, Excluding Food & Energy), which is observed very closely by US FRS, has grown by 0,4% in October-December, which met market expectations. This index shows inflation risks’ levels.

US dollar got a little bit weaker because of statistics; however balance in the main currency pair remains the same.

In general Euro’s rate in January has grown against the package of 10 traded currencies by 1,5%. As for the February’s prospects, EUR/USD can be corrected to the levels of 1,33-1,35, as it is oversold at the moment.

Day’s statistics from Eurozone expected by investors appeared to be weak: summary index of business and consumer confidence has decreased to 106,5 points in January in comparison to expected growth to 106,7 points. December’s index meanwhile was at its 3 years’ maximum.

It is obvious that process of return of trust to Eurozone is going very slowly, however it is going on.

Let us note that Germany remains economic engine of Eurozone; manufacturing volumes increase and support high levels of export.

Meeting of FRS finished yesterday in States: a decision not to change interest rate’s level was made. Rate remained in the range of 0-0,25% per annum. QE2 program’s volume also remained the same ($600bn), which is the evidence of stability and is neutral for USD.

In general, short-term prospect for EUR/USD is an increasing trend.

Let us remind that Britain’s GDP dropped by 0,5% per quarter in fourth quarter of 2010, while analysts expected it to grow by 0,5%. Main reason of the failure was bad weather which caused the decrease of shopping activity.

British Pound has reacted to the weak statistics with decrease by 2 figures, however it shows recovery now even though statistics released today don’t look good for investors.

So, retail trade’s level according to CBI calculations has dropped to +37 points from the previous level of +56, which has become 3 months’ minimum. It means that the number of weak points in British economy just increases.

Please keep in mind that new sales tax is working since 4th of January 2011, which, supposedly, will cause further decrease of retail sales’ level, which by-turn will be reflected in overall state of economy and GBP’s rate.

NZ Reserve Bank’s meeting finished yesterday: a decision to keep interest rate at 3,0% per annum was made.

The decision met expectations; however Bank’s governor, Mr. Bollard, had noted in his comments that Bank planned to increase the rate in next two years. Moreover, interest rate would improve its positions as soon as economic situation in the country would show stable recovery.

RBNZ had left forecasts about economy’s prospects unaltered; Bank’s analysts said that economic activity in the country on second part of the last year was weaker than expected.

In general New Zealand dollar has chances to continue growth, which stopped today, till the end of the week, as outer background is still favourable to high risk assets. Midterm trend for NZD is growing.

British GDP had decreased by 0,5% per quarter in comparison to expected growth by 0,5% per quarter in fourth quarter of 2010. British GDP in fourth quarter was 1,7%, while 2,6% was forecasted. Let us remind that in third quarter British GDP had grown by 0,7% per quarter (+2,7% per annum).

According to preliminary estimate, bad weather in autumn and winter had influenced British economy badly, as people preferred to stay at home rather than going somewhere. Consumers’ activity had also slowed down for this period.

According to British National Statistics Agency economy’s growth would be zero in fourth quarter if weather was not so bad.

It should be also noted that program of cutting of budget expenses didn’t start to work fully yet, and economy had already slowed down. Market considers it to be a negative sign. Possible toughening of monetary policy in Britain will also influence country’s GDP.

So, Pound’s weakness has its grounds under it. It is most likely that GBP/USD will keep going down in the middle of the week.

According to investors’ opinion, Eurozone will need to apply certain efforts to overcome debt problems of peripheral countries. It is a bit strange that this topic have arisen after successful placement of the first part of Eurozone’s bonds on Tuesday: demand appeared to be 9 times higher than supply.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in USA has grown to its 6 months’ maximum in January and showed 60,6 points in comparison to the forecasted 54 points and previous 53,3 points. Positive attitude of Americans to the labour market in USA has become a main catalyst of index growth. Consumers expenditure makes about 70% of US GDP.

Traders are also following FRS’ meeting that started today, however, first comments will be available on Wednesday in the evening.

Day statistics for Eurozone countries appeared to be positive. For example, Business Confidence Index in Germany has grown to 110,3 in January from the forecasted 109,9 points, while in France it has improved its positions to 108 points from the previous 102.

It should be noted that in Germany Index has reached its 20-years maximum, while analysts didn’t expect any changes. According to the last statistic information from the country, Germany has completely recovered from the crisis and has returned its status of economic engine of Eurozone. Germany’s economy has grown up by 3,6% in 2010.

Next week investors’ attention will be drawn to the meeting of Federal Reserve System planned on 25-26th of January. It is obvious that interest rate will remain the same; however monetary politicians’ comments and their estimation of current situation in the US will be interesting.

It seems that until Eurozone will raise the question of debt problems again, outer background will play in favour of Euro.

It became known on Thursday that according to CBI’s quarter report the level of business optimism in Britain had grown by 7% in January from the previous level of 2% in October. Moreover, average prices for manufacturing in January had grown up by 31% compared to December’s growth of 16%.

CBI’s report also had information saying that the volume of manufacturing in Britain had grown up by 17% in January in comparison to December’s 13%.

According to statistics, economic recovery keeps going in Britain, despite of the measures authorities take to cut budget expenses.

As for GBP/USD dynamics, midterm prospect should consider local over sale of Pound, which can provoke a technical snap-back. However, general trend for GBP/USD remained as a “Bull”; buyers’ targets were 1,6130 and 1,6155.

In general Australian Dollar’s weakness is caused mostly by the inner factors. First of all flood in Queensland will “take” about 1% of country’s GDP (first quarter of the year). Secondly, Reserve Bank of Australia will need to support local economy’s recovery, as this recent act of God can become the major one in the country’s history for the size of damage.

In the light of all that, it is most likely that RBA will move interest rate’s growth till later. This opinion is already noted by market.

One more factor that plays against AUD at the moment is preparation of China to cool down its own economy – Beijing is one of the major Australian trading partners, and observers note that China can limit import levels in order to slow down the inflation in the country.

AUD/USD’s key support level is 0,9900; if pair will get lower than that, 0,9850 and 0,9780 will become sales targets.

In general Euro was successfully corrected and got back to the level of 1,35; if the currency can make it better, it is possible that pair will keep growing.

Thursday’s statistics from Germany appeared to be positive and supported Euro: for example PPI (Producer Price Index) had grown by 0,7% per month in December in Germany, while analysts had forecasted 0,5% growth only. Per annum PPI grew by 5,3% while only 4,4% was expected.

Moreover, durables’ prices in Germany had grown by 0,1% in December; cost of utilities – by 1,5%.
In general, situation for EUR/USD remained positive, considering difficult situation with debt problems in a number of Eurozone countries.

Euro’s quotes can get to 1,33 and 1,3250 in midterm prospect.